Gold as a safe-haven asset and the Swiss external sector
Summary
Gold is Switzerland's largest import and export in terms of value, owing to the substantial refining and trading activities that are based in the country. This note documents how the safe-haven motive of global gold demand distorts key indicators of the Swiss external sector. Gold trade generates cyclical movements in the Swiss current account balance, which are determined by changes in the safe-haven motive of gold demand in times of global stress. Furthermore, in times of global stress, as the safe-haven motive of gold demand is amplified, Swiss gold exports redirect towards key suppliers of gold-backed financial instruments, in turn causing large shifts in trade balances with Switzerland's trading partners. Gold-driven shifts in Swiss external sector indicators thus require careful interpretation since they reflect global factors—not changes in Swiss economic fundamentals.
- Issue:
- 04
- Pages:
- 6
- Keywords:
- Gold, Swiss external sector, Current account balance, International trade, Global economic uncertainty, Safe-haven asset
- Year:
- 2025