Momentum in stock market returns: Implications for risk premia on foreign currencies

June 14, 2010
Issue 2010-11

Summary

Momentum in foreign stock market returns is exploitable as signal of currency excess returns. Past stock market winner currencies offer higher returns than past stock market loser currencies. This finding is unrelated to interest rate differentials. Funding liquidity risk explains the time series variation in foreign stock market momentum sorted currency portfolio returns. Their cross-sectional dispersion is hardly rationalized by systematic risk factors in contrast to forward discount and currency momentum sorted currency portfolios. This latter finding reflects that fundamentals driving stock market momentum based currency portfolio returns are not related to recently proposed currency risk factors in the cross-section.

Download file now

The file can be downloaded with the button below.

Issue:
11
Pages:
61
JEL classification:
F31, F37, G15
Keywords:
currency returns, expected return news, intrinsic value, momentum, risk premia, stock market returns
Year:
2010

Additional files

Related content

Author(s)

  • Dr. Thomas Nitschka

Your settings

Required: These cookies (e.g. for storing your IP address) cannot be rejected as they are necessary to ensure the operation of the website. These data are not evaluated further.
Analytics: If you consent to this category, data such as IP address, location, device information, browser version and site visitor behaviour will be collected. These data are evaluated for the SNB's internal purposes and are kept for two years.
Third-party: If you consent to this category, third-party services (used, for example, to add social multimedia content to the SNB's website) will be activated which collect personal data, process these data, disclose them abroad - worldwide - and place cookies. The relevant data protection regulations are linked in the 'Privacy statement for the website of the Swiss National Bank'.

Choose your preferred settings:

This website uses cookies, analytics tools and other technologies to provide requested features, content and services, to personalise the content shown, to provide links to social media, and to analyse the use of the website in anonymised form for the purposes of improving usability. Personal data are also disclosed abroad - worldwide - to video service providers and the analytics tools of these providers are used. More information is available under 'Manage settings'.