Quantifying uncertainty: a new era of measurement through large language models

October 16, 2024
Issue 2024-12

Summary

This paper presents an innovative method for measuring uncertainty via large language models (LLMs), which offer greater precision and contextual sensitivity than the conventional methods used to construct prominent uncertainty indices. By analysing newspaper texts with state-of-the-art LLMs, our approach captures nuances often missed by conventional methods. We develop indices for various types of uncertainty, including geopolitical risk, economic policy, monetary policy, and financial market uncertainty. Our findings show that shocks to these LLM-based indices exhibit stronger associations with macroeconomic variables, shifts in investor behaviour, and asset return variations than conventional indices, underscoring their potential for more accurately reflecting uncertainty.

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Issue:
12
Pages:
54
JEL classification:
C45, C55, E44, G12
Keywords:
Uncertainty measurement, Large language models, Economic policy, Geopolitical risk, Monetary policy, Financial markets
Year:
2024

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Author(s)

  • Francesco Audrino

  • Jessica Gentner

  • Simon Stalder

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