Time-intensive R&D and unbalanced trade
Résumé
This paper highlights a novel mechanism that generates global imbalances. It develops a general equilibrium trade model with one of two countries having a comparative advantage in a sector whose production is characterized by (i) rapid, anticipated demand growth and (ii) large up-front R&D costs. International funding of the accruing R&D costs generates capital inflows in the R&D stage, which are balanced by subsequent outflows. Importantly, sector-level growth does not generate growth differentials between countries, typically regarded as rationales of global imbalances. Additionally, it is shown that a trade surplus can coincide with appreciations of the real exchange rate. I argue that Switzerland's trades surplus, which was driven to record heights during 2010-2014 by pharmaceutical exports, exemplifies this mechanism. Calibrating the model to Swisstrade flows underpins this argument.
- Issue:
- 11
- Pages:
- 35
- JEL classification:
- F12, F41
- Keywords:
- Unbalanced trade, setup costs, R&D costs
- Year:
- 2015